US
US Economy
Topic
42.3%
Accuracy
Recent Predictions
Incorrect: 15
Pending: 349
Prediction
Author
Predicted at
Status
Video
Gambling behavior is expected to remain strong and may even increase during difficult economic times.
"gambling behavior tends to remain robust regardless of economic conditions and there's actually data..."
May 4, 2025
Pending
If the economy weakens and consumption falls, retailers will absorb tariff-related costs.
"if the economy is weakening and consumption is falling and retailers will have to eat the costs as a..."
May 4, 2025
Pending
Markets and the economy are likely to experience choppy trading and slow growth until tariffs are finalized, with underlying weakness persisting afterward.
"both could continue to chop and grind until tariffs are finalized and both could see short-term peri..."
May 4, 2025
Pending
Further economic weakening due to tariff concerns could be the trigger for a US recession.
"any further weakening due to tariff concerns could in fact be the thing that tips the US economy int..."
May 4, 2025
Pending
Q1 GDP data suggests the predicted recession is likely to occur.
"the Q1 GDP data that recently came out suggests we will get the recession tors foreshadows in the re..."
May 4, 2025
Pending
The US economy is predicted to technically enter a recession if there is one more negative GDP report, assuming the definition of recession is not changed.
"A negative GDP uh GDP report is not good for the economy. One more and we are technically in a reces..."
May 3, 2025
Pending
If the US receives one more negative GDP report, it will technically be in a recession.
"if we get one more negative GDP report, we will be technically in a recession because again a recess..."
Apr 30, 2025
Pending
Producing 100% of American consumer goods domestically would be a logistical and economic nightmare, instantly making most consumer goods unaffordable for the average American and being literally impossible for many products.
"Because, let's be clear, it would be a logistical and economic nightmare to produce 100% of what Ame..."
Apr 29, 2025
Pending
Failure of proposed deregulation plans could lead to stagflation (weak economic growth and inflation) in the US economy due to tariffs.
"if these deregulation plans fail then the US economy could end up with stagflation that is weak econ..."
Apr 27, 2025
Pending
The US economy is predicted to eventually enter a recession.
"If this ever fails to hold as support, that's probably when the markets will truly throw in the towe..."
Apr 21, 2025
Pending
Tariffs will initially stall US economic growth and lead to job losses in the US.
"we do think that initially at least this is going to stall growth and I think it's actually going to..."
Apr 21, 2025
Pending
Inflation is predicted to drop significantly after excess inventory from big tech's stockpiling filters through the system.
"Now, once that excess inventory filters through the system, which could take a little while, inflati..."
Apr 20, 2025
Pending
The US will lower interest rates in the coming months.
"The United States will at least when quantitative tightening will lower interest rates in the coming..."
Apr 20, 2025
Pending
The Fed will be forced to cut interest rates and restart money printing once inflation dramatically falls.
"And when that happens, the Fed will have no choice but to cut rates and to fire up the damn printers..."
Apr 20, 2025
Pending
Despite initial trade war challenges, the author predicts overwhelming future success for the US economy.
"I low-key do think that we are going to win so much that we're going to be tired of winning."
Apr 19, 2025
Pending
The author predicts a period of significant and overwhelming economic success for the US.
"I low-key do think that we are going to win so much that we're going to be tired of winning."
Apr 19, 2025
Pending
$5 trillion in pending tax cuts will provide a short-term boost to financial markets.
"Five trillion in tax cuts uh pending. ...It'll provide a short boost for markets."
Apr 18, 2025
Pending
The speaker predicts that Jerome Powell's scenario of increased inflation and slower economic growth (due to new tariffs and trade war) is plausible over the next couple of months.
"Although, I do think what Powell is saying is a plausible scenario over the next couple of months."
Apr 17, 2025
Pending
The US government will roll out significant tax cuts in late 2025, which will lead to market excitement.
"when they roll out those big tax cuts in a few months. That's how's that not going to make the marke..."
Apr 15, 2025
Pending
The real impacts of tariffs and higher prices (leading to inflation) will be observed within 1 to 2 years from the video publication date of April 2025.
"now it could be a year, 18 months, two years before we start to see the real impacts of that."
Apr 14, 2025
Pending
Rapidly escalating interest rates pose a risk of breaking segments of the US economy and forcing deleveraging.
"And if interest rates get too high too fast, it can break parts of the US economy and force it to de..."
Apr 14, 2025
Correct
The US economy risks unwinding and entering a recession in 2025 if interest rates remain high, forcing a refinance of $9 trillion in debt at elevated rates.
"And the US is thinking the exact same thing. How long can the US allow their bond market to be so hi..."
Apr 14, 2025
Incorrect
High and rapidly increasing interest rates pose a significant risk to the US economy, especially given its $30 trillion national debt, potentially causing economic breakdown and deleveraging.
"And with over $30 trillion in national debt, that's not good. And if interest rates get too high too..."
Apr 14, 2025
Correct
Poly Markets indicates a 61% probability of a US recession being declared by the end of 2025.
"Poly Markets 61% probability that a recession will be declared by the end of the year."
Apr 11, 2025
Pending
There is a greater than 50% probability of a US recession occurring or being ongoing (from April 2025).
"like I think it's likely more than 50% chance."
Apr 11, 2025
Pending
JP Morgan predicts the US will enter a recession in H2 2025, with GDP contracting 1% in Q3 2025 and 0.5% in Q4 2025, and unemployment rising to 5.3%.
"JP Morgan believes that the United States will enter into a recession in the latter half of 2025 as ..."
Apr 11, 2025
Pending
Goldman Sachs estimates a 45% probability of the US entering a recession by April 2026.
"Goldman Sachs says there's currently about a 45% chance in the next 12 months, up from a previous fo..."
Apr 11, 2025
Pending
The combination of tariffs and reduced export competitiveness is predicted to lead to economic contraction and recession within 6 months.
"this combined with retaliatory tariffs making American exports less competitive is a recipe for econ..."
Apr 8, 2025
Pending
JP Morgan predicts the US economy will shrink in 2025 and 2026, with a recession starting by the end of 2025.
"JP Morgan for example now expects the US economy to shrink in 2025 and 2026 with the recession expec..."
Apr 8, 2025
Pending
J.P. Morgan has significantly increased its recession forecast, now estimating a 60% chance of a global recession this year, up from previous figures of 35-40% for the US alone.
"JP Morgan came out and revised their estimates for a recession in the US up 60% not just in the US o..."
Apr 7, 2025
Pending
A theory suggests that the current administration is focused on lowering the 10-year yield to enable more favorable refinancing conditions for the substantial amount of debt due this year.
"The 10-year yield because this is one of the things this is one of the arguments for the fact that T..."
Apr 7, 2025
Pending
The current stock market drop is very likely to lead to layoffs, which will become obvious later in 2025.
"What's happening right now in the market is very likely going to lead to layoffs. And those layoffs ..."
Apr 6, 2025
Pending
Fears of a recession in the USA could lead to further downward market movements.
"Could USA go in recession? And those fears could lead the next moves downwards."
Apr 3, 2025
Correct
Tariffs will lead to an increased cost of living, an economic slowdown, and likely a recession in the US.
"The bottom line from all of these tariffs is that the cost of living in the US is going to go up... ..."
Apr 3, 2025
Pending
The US economy will likely slow down and enter a recession.
"The economic situation in the US is probably going to slow down. We're most likely looking at a rece..."
Apr 3, 2025
Pending
The US economy is likely to slow down, most likely leading to a recession.
"The economic situation in the US is probably going to slow down. We're most likely looking at a rece..."
Apr 3, 2025
Pending
A significant amount of manufacturing, including microchip production, was predicted to return to the USA.
"a lot of manufacturing is going to come back to the USA and it's actually strategically important to..."
Apr 3, 2025
Pending
Companies will not reduce prices even if tariffs are lowered in the future, choosing instead to maintain higher prices for increased profit margins.
"once companies raise their prices to reflect what they need in terms of adjusting for these tariffs,..."
Apr 3, 2025
Pending
Companies will not raise prices by the full tariff amount, even if tariffs are 30%.
"I don't think that companies are going to raise their products and services or goods by 30%."
Apr 3, 2025
Pending
Many Western economies are heavily indebted, suggesting a potential 'reckoning' is inevitable unless measures are taken to prevent it.
"and so many other economies I I mean I think the US is is is a bit of an outlier in terms of how muc..."
Mar 31, 2025
Pending
A Great Depression is not predicted to happen due to Trump's actions.
"if Trump really create, you know, creates the Great Depression and which is not going to happen."
Mar 31, 2025
Correct
The macroeconomic impact of tariffs could lead to a dampening of US GDP growth.
"the macroeconomic growth impacts is potentially that we could see a damp in US GDP growth"
Mar 31, 2025
Pending
There's an expectation that the Federal Reserve might intervene with monetary stimulus if the US enters a recession, similar to a 'Fed put' strategy.
"and then of course there's this expectation potentially of policy response is the Fed going to you k..."
Mar 31, 2025
Pending
Jerome Powell is determined to avoid lowering interest rates if it risks reigniting inflation, likely due to lessons from the 1970s.
"I really do think Jerome Powell will have to be you know will do that over his dead body do you know..."
Mar 31, 2025
Pending
The implementation of tariffs could lead to a significant restructuring of global supply chains and manufacturing locations.
"it's going to cause such a massive shift in in Global Supply chains in in how things are manufacture..."
Mar 31, 2025
Pending
The transition to new supply chain models due to tariffs will likely be painful, with consumers in the US and elsewhere potentially suffering for years.
"the journey to get there is probably going to be so painful because it's just it requires so much up..."
Mar 31, 2025
Pending
The United States will emerge as a creditor nation within a decade through strategic adoption of Bitcoin.
"I think it will be the United States. It's a way for us to enrich ourself and emerge as a creditor n..."
Mar 30, 2025
Pending
Tariffs are predicted to potentially lead to layoffs in the US economy during Q3 or Q4 of 2025.
"hopefully we don't get more than than we bargain for and that it doesn't like lead to, you know, to ..."
Mar 27, 2025
Pending
US economic growth is predicted to slow down.
"The little reset that has happened now is that the US will probably slow down a bit. Some people are..."
Mar 25, 2025
Pending
US Core PCE Inflation to be 2.5-2.8% by the end of 2025.
"core pce 2.5 to 2.8"
Mar 20, 2025
Pending